Property market turns pessimistic amid Middle East crisis: NUS
Survey results indicated 50% of property developers anticipate higher rates for new residential start for the next six months, while 60% anticipate start quantities to hold firm, sustained by resilient purchaser need.
Made by NUS’ Department of Real Estate and Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (Ireus), the Resi tracks impressions and expectations of the property industry via quarterly studies of top execs in Singapore real property business.
Both the present and future sentiment indices fell in 1Q2026. The previous contracted to 4.9 from the previous quarter’s 6.1. The latter slipped to 5.0 from 5.5 in the preceding quarter.
Teacher Qian Wenlan, supervisor of the NUS Ireus, associates the depressed shift in the industry to macroeconomic headwinds coming from the conflict occurring in the Middle East. “The continuous disaster in the Middle East– with its cascading results on growing power costs, persistent inflation, and high rate of interest– has actually dampened property sentiment here in Singapore,” she explains.
Across commercial and industrial sections, views generally decreased. The business park and hi-tech space market led this downturn, uploading a present web balance of -25% and a future net balance of -20%.
International political headwinds are casting a shadow over Singapore’s real property market, according to the latest Realty Sentiment Index (Resi) presented by the National University of Singapore (NUS). The Composite Sentiment Index plunged to 4.9 in 1Q2026, from 5.8 in the very last quarter.
It makes up a Current Sentiment Index and a Future Sentiment Index, which track adjustments over the prior six months and the next 6 months, specifically. Scores from both of these indices are aggregated to obtain a Compound Index, which shows general market sentiment.
However, belief in the top housing market has lightened. While the section secured a positive current final balance of 5% in 1Q2026, the number is a marked decrease from the 41% logged in the previous quarter. “The prime residential sector is naturally extra conscious changes in global capital and international buyer notion,” indicates Qian.
Offices fared reasonably much better. While the industry’s present net balance slipped to 0% from the 12% in 4Q2025, low Grade A vacancy and a constrained upcoming supply pipeline are expected to bolster this segment, reflected in a favorable future outlook of +15%.
Still, the domestic home industry remains steady, with respondents reflecting gauged trust in the rural household market. Across all property segments, suburban residential topped the listing with a positive present internet equilibrium and future web balance of +15% each.
“With the Composite Index slipping below the neutral threshold, it is clear that the industry is moving from an expansionary mindset to one of protective consolidation as companies shift right into a ‘risk-off’ stance,” says Qian.
Belief also fell in the retail and hospitality property markets. The prime retail and suburban retail sections logged current net balances of -20% and -15% for 1Q2026, whilst the hotel and serviced apartment segment had an existing net balance of -15%.
